Wall Street bankers and traders are projected to receive substantial increases in year-end bonuses throughout 2026, according to new projections released Tuesday by compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates. The surge in payouts is largely attributed to an investment boom in artificial intelligence, as firms raced to assist hyperscalers, frontier AI companies, and smaller entities with debt issuance, stock offerings, public listings, and financing deals. Increased market volatility has also benefited traders, who typically see higher compensation when market movements accelerate.
Investment bankers specializing in equity sales, trading, and underwriting are expected to see the most significant gains. This group could see bonus increases ranging from 20% to 30% or more compared to 2025 levels. These payouts are considered vital to the economies of New York state and city, as high compensation levels typically drive revenue for the restaurant and real estate sectors and bolster state budget coffers.
In contrast to the gains in investment banking, other sectors face stagnation or decline. Private equity bonus growth is projected to range from 0% to 7.5%, while the private credit sector could see bonuses that remain flat or decrease by as much as 7.5%. Alan Johnson, the managing director of Johnson Associates, stated that the private credit sector expanded too quickly, attracted significant capital, and issued questionable loans.
